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Twittering, Jiwaiing, Taotaoing – Microblogging in China

February 15th, 2009 No comments

Twittering, Jiwaiing, Taotaoing – Microblogging in China

“Twitter is a social networking and microblogging service that allows its users to send and read other users’ updates (otherwise known as tweets), which are text-based posts of up to 140 characters in length.” – Wikipedia

Isn’t Twitter just a big waste of time? This is the question that always kept me from becoming an active user on Twitter despite having had an account for some time. I just couldn’t understand the appeal of reading and writing 140 character long posts that would risk my transformation into a Twitterholic, spending seemingly entire days connected tweeting and reading others tweets. After reading articles like this one and encouragement from other bloggers, I finally became an active user about a month and a half ago (@joelbackaler). It did not take me long to realize the value of microblogging goes way beyond answering the Twitter question, “What are you doing?” Microblogging helps build communities centered around shared interests and keeps groups of followers and those being followed up to date with the most recent happenings in their area of interest. It is so effective that I have even observed there are some outside observers who are so active on Twitter and the China blogosphere that they are just as if not more knowledgeable than some of us here on the ground. It was this train of thought that inspired me to write this post on microblogging in China. Over the course of my research I came across this excellent post from the 56minus1 blog entitled “Chinese microblogging platforms.”

The author (@ajschokora) explains:
“Twitter itself is the choice of China’s more internationally-oriented digerati: (a) because they were early adopters, before the Chinese clones got off the ground, and (b) because there’s little interoperability among all of the different choices, so users tend to join services where there are already conversations they want to follow”

He then provides an introduction to his “top 5” microblogging platforms in China:
Taotao ?? www.taotao.com
Fanfou ?? www.fanfou.com
Jiwai ?? www.jiwai.de
Zuosa ?? www.zousa.com
Douban Broadcast ???? www.douban.com

For those of you interested in keeping an eye on China through Twitter here are just a few people whose tweets I like to follow (definitely many more not listed):

@pdenlinger/@wolfgroupasia/@danharris/@imagethief/

@sagebrennan/@niubi/@christinelu/@raykwong/@elliotng

What do you think are the top reasons to microblog? Do you think one of the Chinese microblogging platforms listed above will become THE China Twitter? Leave a comment and start the conversation…

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Report: China IT spending remains strong

February 7th, 2009 No comments

Boosted by government initiatives and green spending, China’s IT market in 2009 will only be minimally affected by the global economic slowdown, according to a new report from Springboard Research.

IT spending in the country will reach $51.2 billion in 2009, a year-on-year growth of 11 percent, the research firm said in a statement Friday. This is only 2 percent shy of Springboard’s previous estimate of 13.1 percent growth, or $52.1 billion.

China’s IT market growth, noted Springboard, has largely been protected by the financial crisis as its export industry, the country’s worst hit sector, is not a key buyer of technology. China’s huge domestic market and its “almost closed financial system” also play a part in helping the country cope with the market conditions, said Bryan Wang, Springboard’s country manager for Greater China.

“Moreover, a strong government investment plan will boost spending in various economic quarters and help the Chinese IT market sustain its place as a shining star in the Asia-Pacific region in 2009,” he added.

IT spending in China

Last November, the Chinese government announced a $585.2 billion stimulus package, which includes plans to invest over $290 billion on railway network expansion from 2009 to 2011. This, Springboard noted in its report, highlights the market opportunity for IT products.

IT expenditure in key verticals such as government, education, and telecoms will grow on the back of the government stimulus package, said Wang. According to the report, government-driven infrastructure spending will bolster a large portion of investment in the country in 2009, while IT expenditure relating to 3G wireless networkswill also be a big area of spending for telecom operators in China in 2009. The banking and finance sector’s IT spending will remain firm, but IT planners will exercise more caution in their purchases.

In addition, green IT will be fast-growing in China–the market for green IT products and services is expected to have a five-year compound annual growth rate of 71 percent to reach $447 million in 2011.

“Springboard Research believes the green data centers and related green IT services will become a hot area for these organizations in 2009,” the report noted. “Enterprises will look to rapidly build out investments in green-field data centers, and this will also bring out the concept of virtualization and recycling with existing infrastructure, which is increasingly becoming a critical part of the investment moving forward.”

Players in the business process outsourcing (BPO) market, particularly small and midsize independent software vendors, may be the most affected by the global financial crisis, Springboard said in its report.

Many Chinese BPO companies located in cities including Dalian and Shenzhen, have a majority of their businesses from overseas banking and financial institutions, it explained, adding that these providers’ businesses would be affected in 2009 as a result of “very few” contracts secured in the second half of 2008.

Hong Kong and Taiwan, having been part of the global financial system for decades, would also be more affected by the global slowdown, Springboard added. The impact on Taiwan’s IT expenditure would be more severe, as Hong Kong is expected to gain financial support from mainland China.

According to Springboard, the Chinese government’s plans and policies will lead to a more stable IT market from the second quarter of 2009.

Vivian Yeo of ZDNet Asia reported from Singapore.

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How to manage your business in a recession

January 29th, 2009 No comments

There’s no script for running a company in this historic downturn. So what the heck do you do? Here are ten ways to weather the storm.

By Geoff Colvin, senior editor at large
Last Updated: January 8, 2009: 5:31 PM ET

(Fortune Magazine) — Exciting as it is to be living through historic economic drama, you can’t just stand by and watch. You have to act – yet you have no script.

So much of today’s turmoil is unprecedented that we can’t find much guidance by looking to the past. For managers across the global economy, as well as for Team Obama on its way to Washington, today’s great question is, What do we do now?

Managing in any recession is difficult; managing through this one is especially hard because it’s different from previous ones in multiple ways. Most immediately significant, employment is plunging more steeply than in a long time – by more than two million jobs last year, more than during the previous two recessions, and this one is far from over.

At the same time, U.S. consumer spending is falling sharply. In the third quarter it sank at a 3.1% annual rate, the steepest decline since 1980 – meaning that managers who have made it through the past four recessions have never confronted anything like it. Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) president Brian Dunn said recently, “In 42 years of retailing, we’ve never seen such difficult times for the consumer.”

The drop is worrisome because consumer spending is more than 70% of America’s economy, and while it may rise quickly or slowly, it almost always rises. During the whole of the last recession (2001), consumer spending never declined at all; its growth only slowed.

Compounding the problem, consumers are more deeply in debt than ever, an immediate concern for companies that lend to consumers; American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) CEO Ken Chenault calls this “one of the most challenging economic environments we’ve seen in many decades.”

Longer term, consumers’ balance sheets are so ugly that many executives believe this recession may linger as people slowly rebuild their finances. Dunkin’ Brands chairman Jon Luther says, “This downturn will not have a typical V-shape, where it bounces right back. It could be a couple of years before consumer spending goes up again.”

Consumers aren’t the only ones deleveraging. Companies are too, and on a more massive scale than ever seen before. That means business-to-business firms are also suffering. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) CEO John Chambers predicts that his company’s sales will decline for the first time in five years.

Deleveraging is typical in a recession, but because boom-time leverage had reached unprecedented levels, the reverse process may become particularly violent. Deere (DE, Fortune 500) CEO Bob Lane cites current deleveraging as a main difference between this recession and previous ones: “The U.S. economy has never been through anything like this, and we don’t know what the effects will be.”

Yet another important difference – the credit crunch – affects even those companies that are reducing debt, but especially those that aren’t. Virtually all firms depend on a constant flow of credit to carry them smoothly through the ups and downs of business fluctuations. While it’s entirely typical for lenders to get more cautious in a downturn, the near freezing of credit is something else again. Even companies able to pay higher interest rates may find that credit isn’t available from the usual sources at any price.

Making this recession unique above all is its sheer interconnected complexity. Consider this sequence: The U.S. housing bubble bursts, pushing U.S. consumer spending down, leading to less demand for imports from China, causing slower growth of the Chinese economy, thus decreasing demand for copper, pushing copper prices down to their lowest levels in almost three years, causing big problems for you and your warehouse full of copper. You can conduct pretty fancy scenario planning and still not be ready for that – and it’s safe to say we’ve barely begun to see the rippling effects of a recession in an information-based, truly international economy.

Don’t wait

Yet that’s the environment in which you must manage. How? Insights and practices from global executives, consultants, and others suggest several steps you can take now.

As usual in these situations, much will depend on how quickly you move. It’s human nature to avoid confronting bad news and to imagine that today’s troubles will pass more quickly and easily than they really will. Virtually everyone Fortune spoke to recommends the opposite: Assume conditions will be worse than you actually expect.

“You identify areas where you think you can be more efficient by assuming the worst-case scenario,” says Intuit (INTU) CEO Brad Smith. “Then you end up saying, Why don’t we just do that anyhow?” Facing the coming reality before your competitors do can make a big difference in which of you stays healthy or even who survives.

It must be said that some of the most effective moves you can make for prospering through a recession are ones you established a long time ago. In times like these the strong get stronger and the weak get eaten. In the tumultuous third quarter, while Washington Mutual and IndyMac Bank were failing, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) – which got out of subprime mortgages in 2001 – attracted $21 billion of new consumer deposits as consumers ran to safety. When the Wickes furniture retailing chain filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, more than 100 truckloads of furniture were on their way to its stores; a Milwaukee retailer that had remained financially solid, Steinhafels, bought the contents of several at bargain prices.

Remember that for next time. For now, what’s done is done. No matter what shape your business is in, it will benefit from following these ten recommendations.

It’s hard to be upbeat in a recession, but it truly is an opportunity. Marathoners and Tour de France racers will tell you that a race’s hardest parts, the uphill stages, are where the lead changes hands. That’s where we are. When this recession ends, when the road levels off and the world seems full of promise once more, your position in the competitive pack will depend on how skillfully you manage right now.

Reporter associates Steven Gray, Christopher Tkaczyk and Yi-Wyn Yen contributed to this article.

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The Next World Order

January 4th, 2009 No comments

New Delhi

CHINA and India are in a struggle for a top rung on the ladder of world power, but their approaches to the state and to power could not be more different.

Two days after last month’s terrorist attack on Mumbai, I met with a Chinese friend who was visiting India on business. He was shocked as much by the transparent and competitive minute-by-minute reporting of the attack by India’s dozens of news channels as by the ineffectual response of the government. He had seen a middle-class housewife on national television tell a reporter that the Indian commandos delayed in engaging the terrorists because they were too busy guarding political big shots. He asked how the woman could get away with such a statement.

I explained sarcasm resonates in a nation that is angry and disappointed with its politicians. My friend switched the subject to the poor condition of India’s roads, its dilapidated cities and the constant blackouts. Suddenly, he stopped and asked: “With all this, how did you become the second-fastest growing economy in the world? China’s leaders fear the day when India’s government will get its act together.”

The answer to his question may lie in a common saying among Indians that “our economy grows at night when the government is asleep.” As if to illustrate this, the Mumbai stock market rose in the period after the terrorist attacks. Two weeks later, in several state elections, incumbents were ousted over economic issues, not security.

All this baffled my Chinese friend, and undoubtedly many of his countrymen, whose own success story has been scripted by an efficient state. They are uneasy because their chief ally, Pakistan, is consistently linked to terrorism while across the border India’s economy keeps rising disdainfully. It puzzles them that the anger in India over the Mumbai attacks is directed against Indian politicians rather than Muslims or Pakistan.

The global financial crisis has definitely affected India’s growth, and it will be down to perhaps 7 percent this year from 8.7 percent in 2007. According to my friend, China is hurting even more. What really perplexes the Chinese, he said, is that scores of nations have engaged in the same sorts of economic reforms as India, so why is it that it’s the Indian economy that has become the developing world’s second best? The speed with which India is creating world-class companies is also a shock to the Chinese, whose corporate structure is based on state-owned and foreign companies.

I have no satisfactory explanation for all this, but I think it may have something to do with India’s much-reviled caste system. Vaishyas, members of the merchant caste, who have learned over generations how to accumulate capital, give the nation a competitive advantage. Classical liberals may be right in thinking that commerce is a natural trait, but it helps if there is a devoted group of risk-taking entrepreneurs around to take advantage of the opportunity. Not surprisingly, Vaishyas still dominate the Forbes list of Indian billionaires.

In a much-discussed magazine article last year, Lee Kwan Yew, the former prime minister of Singapore, raised an important question: Why does the rest of the world view China’s rise as a threat but India’s as a wonderful success story? The answer is that India is a vast, unwieldy, open democracy ruled by a coalition of 20 parties. It is evolving through a daily flow of ideas among the conservative forces of caste and religion, the liberals who dominate intellectual life, and the new forces of global capitalism.

The idea of becoming a military power in the 21st century embarrasses many Indians. This ambivalence goes beyond Mahatma Gandhi’s nonviolent struggle for India’s freedom, or even the Buddha’s message of peace. The skeptical Indian temper goes back to the 3,500-year-old “Nasadiya” verse of the Rig Veda, which meditates on the creation of the universe: “Who knows and who can say, whence it was born and whence came this creation? The gods are later than this world’s creation. Who knows then whence it first came into being?” When you have millions of gods, you cannot afford to be theologically narcissistic. It also makes you suspect power.

Both the Chinese and the Indians are convinced that their prosperity will only increase in the 21st century. In China it will be induced by the state; in India’s case, it may well happen despite the state. Indians expect to continue their relentless march toward a modern, democratic, market-based future. In this, terrorist attacks are a noisy, tragic, but ultimately futile sideshow.

However, Indians are painfully aware that they must reform their government bureaucracy, police and judiciary — institutions, paradoxically, they were so proud of a generation ago. When that happens, India may become formidable, a thought that undoubtedly worries China’s leaders.

Gurcharan Das is the author of “India Unbound.”

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As Options Fade, Lehman Is Said to Seek a Buyer : A Wall Street Icon crumbles

September 12th, 2008 No comments

This article was reported by Jenny Anderson, Andrew Ross Sorkin and Ben White and written by Mr. White.

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Michael Falco for The New York Times

Suitors of Lehman Brothers are seeking help from the Federal Reserve to help make an acquisition palatable.

A day after Lehman Brothers sought to assure Wall Street that it could survive on its own, the beleaguered investment bank, urged on by federal officials, bowed to mounting pressure on Thursday and put itself up for sale.

As confidence in Lehman continued to drain away on Thursday, the bank, one of the oldest names on Wall Street, reached out to several potential buyers, including Bank of America and Barclays, the big British bank, according to people briefed on the negotiations. Lehman hopes to strike a deal within days.

In each case, the suitors are seeking help from the Federal Reserve to help make an acquisition palatable. They want the Fed to guarantee a part of Lehman’s troubled assets, these people said, similar to the way it backstopped the emergency sale of another foundering bank, Bear Stearns, in March.

But while the Treasury Department and Fed were working to broker an orderly sale of Lehman, it was unclear whether the Fed would stand behind any deal, particularly after the Bush administration took control of the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies only days ago.

The test will come if potential buyers balk at a purchase without the Fed’s backing. If that were to happen, federal officials would be left to evaluate what risks a sudden collapse of Lehman might pose to the broader financial system.

The rapid decline of Lehman underscores that investors remain unnerved, with rumors about an institution’s problems quickly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as other banks seek to distance themselves to limit their financial exposure.

Even so, while Lehman’s share price fell $3.03 on Thursday to $4.22, leaving it down nearly 94 percent this year, the shares of other financial companies, including the big thrift Washington Mutual, stabilized after days of losses.

Lehman has few options.

Its stock’s relentless decline has convinced Richard S. Fuld Jr., Lehman’s hard-charging chief executive, that the time has come to let go.

“He’s shell-shocked, but he knows he has to sell,” said one person who recently spoke to Mr. Fuld.

Lehman, which employs nearly 25,000 people around the world, tried to convince investors on Wednesday that it could survive on its own by selling divisions and spinning off commercial real estate assets, but its stock continued to decline. Any buyer would almost certainly cut thousands of jobs as it absorbed Lehman’s operations, which include a valuable money management division.

Bank of America is still trying to integrate its purchase of Countrywide, the giant home mortgage lender, but has long considered buying a New York-based investment bank.

Barclays has long insisted that it planned to build out its own investment banking presence in the United States, but Lehman’s price may prove too cheap to resist, people close to the matter said. Spokespeople for Lehman, Barclays and Bank of America all declined to comment.

Other bidders could include private equity groups such as Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Company, which was already planning to bid for Lehman’s investment management division. However, the Federal Reserve is thought to prefer that Lehman be bought by a publicly traded bank with a more stable capital base. Potential suitors for Lehman’s investment management division have discussed securing financing for a deal with Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and others, people involved in the process said.

Should Lehman be sold by the weekend, it would complete a slow-burn collapse that began when the credit crisis began to take hold in summer 2007.

Lehman, whose roots date to its founding as an Alabama cotton exchange in the 1850s, got into trouble by expanding aggressively into the financing of real estate, including subprime mortgages.

In 2006, Lehman was the top underwriter of subprime mortgage securities with an 11 percent market share, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

When the mortgage crisis first flared, many Lehman executives, and others on Wall Street, believed the crisis would be short-lived. Mr. Fuld was characteristically defiant.

“Do we have some stuff on the books that would be tough to get rid of? Yes,” he said last summer. “Is it going to kill us? Of course not.”

As the year came to a close, Lehman still looked as if it had dodged the bullet. While other many Wall Street firms and commercial banks reported huge write-downs and losses last year, Lehman reported $4.1 billion in profits. The board awarded Mr. Fuld a compensation package of more than $40 million.

To some, however, Lehman’s results were ominous. The bank reported gross write-downs of $3.5 billion — $2.2 billion in residential mortgages and $1.3 billion in commercial mortgages. A further deterioration in the market would have left Lehman dangerously exposed. And yet in February, the market still had faith that Lehman was more a winner than a casualty of the credit debacle. Its stock hovered around $66.

But in March, the shock over Bear’s rapid unwinding took its toll on Lehman, a powerful Wall Street institution but the smallest player after Bear. The stock went into free fall and the cost of buying protection against the default of its bonds soared.

Lehman went on the offensive, announcing that it would raise equity. Its stock soared 18 percent, but the respite was short-lived, In late May, a well-respected hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, made a case to an auditorium packed with other investors that Lehman was not marking its books accurately.

From mid-May to mid-June, the stock lost almost half its value. In late May, a team of executives led by Thomas Russo flew to Asia to meet with Korean investors. But almost immediately it was clear the Koreans would need more time than Lehman had to offer, and that the two sides were far apart on price.

Management shifted to Plan B, raising money closer to home. One executive, Larry Wieseneck, global head of finance, ended a trip to return and help raise $6 billion from investors including the New Jersey state pension fund.

But the turmoil at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the continued deterioration in the housing market put further pressure on Lehman through the summer as it made the bank’s own real estate holdings less valuable.

Analysts began to fear an even larger third-quarter loss for Lehman, which the bank disclosed on Wednesday with its poorly received strategic plan to remain independent.

For Mr. Fuld, the moment of truth came when credit ratings agencies downgraded their assessments this week.

Moody’s said that if Lehman did not find a strategic buyer in the “near term,” the agency would downgrade the investment bank, making it difficult for some institutions to do business with the firm. “That’s when BlackBerrys started buzzing,” said one Wall Street banker. “It was clear Lehman would have to be sold.”

Ed Note : I was having a discussion with an informed friend last year when the meltdown in the US was just starting, he first asserted that this was never going to reach Europe, he then said it will be over rather soon; that was before UBS got taken, now he says that European banks have invested in former Soviet bloc countires and are on solid ground; I beg to differ, the old world model, the Capitalist model was, if you had money, you hired minions who did what you TOLD them out of FEAR, even if your ideas were worth mud, add to this that people at all levels were stealing and you have a self – destructing structure – whether it takes 200 or 50 years it WILl go udner because its all speculative, and one day the bottom will drop out – i think people still do not get it, Captialism worked because people could be kept in the dark, when information is freely available and distributed expenetially increasing numbers of humans will start to think for themselves – case in point is the Fiat Lancia Ad starring some Tibetan monks and Richard Gere

… with sufficient media coverage prior to this, Mr Gere is easily identifiable as a very strong voice anti – China voice  … in this Ad he is seen driving away from Hollywood and to a group of ( easily identifiable ) Tibetan monks, upon arrival by pressing his hands intot the snow he throws his lot in with them; he has also thrown his lot in with Hollywood at the begining of the Ad; the car iself is supposed to represent ” being different “  — it will be hard to explain that the car is not trying to tell the Chinese that it is different becasue it throws it lot in with the Tibetan cause.

This ad is a perfect example of the changing nature of our world and Captialism; top – down heirarchies that force stupid ideas on people are truly dead, how many more Wall Street Colalpses will it take for policy makers to accept that until the middle-class has it ” ok and good ” nobody is safe ?

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As Options Fade, Lehman Is Said to Seek a Buyer : A Wall Street Icon crumbles

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